Businesses in Scotland have continued to benefit from the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and a strong economic rebound over the summer months, according to a leading quarterly survey led by the Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC).
The SCC’s Quarterly Economic Indicator (QEI) for the third quarter of 2021 indicates strong growth across most sectors. However, Q3 has also seen mounting concern from businesses over rising cost pressures and external factors such as inflation and taxation rises.
Key Findings:
- Summer bounce back: The gradual removal of economic restrictions on businesses over the summer months saw most sectors enjoy a boost in confidence and domestic sales. Much of this growth was generated from the construction, financial & business services (FBS) and manufacturing sectors. Whilst retail and tourism also saw growth from Q2, this was subdued in comparison to other sectors.
- Rising cost pressures: All sectors have reported significantly increased concerns over inflation and taxation. Across all sectors, levels of concern over inflation have now reached record highs. Surges in the cost of raw materials and shipping, global supply chain disruption and the UK Government’s decision to raise National Insurance contributions, are all being cited by firms as key factors.
- Emerging energy crisis: Reported rises in business confidence are now being undermined by energy concerns with gas supply shortfalls and an over-reliance on volatile imports putting additional cost pressures on businesses.
- Exports remain weak: For the second successive quarter, all export order and sales trends reported in the survey have continued to fall. The slow pace of reopening up international travel, continuing COVID-19 disruption and adjustment to post Brexit trade, are all contributing factors cited by businesses.
- Access to labour: The Construction, Manufacturing and Tourism sectors have all reported significantly increased recruitment difficulties due to a lack of skilled labour in the UK workforce and lack of access to previously available EU labour. Added to the rising cost burden, this will impact on business capacity and in the long-term, force firms to curb investment.
Tim Allan, President of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“The latest Scottish Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Indicator shows the resilience of the Scottish economy and businesses shaking off the cobwebs to deliver a strong start to economic recovery over the summer months, in line with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.
“The survey results indicate that confidence and domestic sales are generally strong across all sectors surveyed, with expectations in line with improving economic forecasts that the Scottish economy should return to pre-pandemic levels in the spring of 2022. After what has been an extremely challenging past 18 months for Scottish businesses, many are now looking and working towards building back to a new normality.
“However, that progress is under significant threat with increasing concern over the emerging energy crisis driving up business costs, inflation and taxation, the cost of raw materials and shipping, all of which are fuelling uncertainty at a time when businesses urgently need confidence and certainty to continue their recovery from the pandemic.
“An additional growing challenge for business is instability in the labour market and persistent skills shortages. All sectors in the survey are reporting increased recruitment difficulties, in line with official statistics recently reporting record high vacancies for the Scottish and UK economy. If Scottish businesses cannot get the talent that they need, they risk falling dangerously behind the curve on recovery and growth.
“There is no time for timidity when it comes to action to support businesses and that’s why the Scottish and UK Government must urgently back business with a clear economic plan and budgets focused on business recovery.
“It is business which is driving the rapid return to economic growth and Governments must stop adding upfront business costs and instead focus on supercharging recovery by creating the right environment for businesses to trade, invest and grow.”
Commenting on the results, Mairi Spowage, Director at the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute, said:
“These results today signal an important boost in optimism across the Scottish economy, driven by the removal of most of the pandemic related restrictions over the summer months.
“Despite this positivity, there are still a number of risks to the fragile economic recovery that we have seen to date. It is unknown how many of the workers who were on furlough at the end of September will become unemployed or unable to secure the type and level of work they want.
“This uncertainty coincides with the cancellation of the Universal Credit uplift which will bring additional financial hardship to around half a million families in Scotland. As well as the risk of joblessness, labour shortages are becoming clear in many sectors, threatening goods shortages and adding to wider inflationary risks.
“As the economy moves, however uncertainly, into this new phase, policy focus turns towards dealing with the climate emergency. As all eyes turn towards Scotland, COP26 in Glasgow in November is seen as the last chance for world leaders to make the step change needed to halt the most harmful form of climate change.
“Businesses will be analysing at the risks and opportunities that come with decarbonising our economy, as they find their place in the green recovery that the Government wants to build.”
The full report can be downloaded here.
As the world’s economy continues to power back up, Scottish businesses are being urged to grab the global opportunities on offer.
The Scottish Chambers of Commerce network is leading a delegation that is showcasing the best of national luxury products and experiences. And it’s looking for businesses ready to take to the international stage.
The seven-day mission to the World Expo in Dubai runs from 27 November to 3 December. It offers Scottish firms the chance to connect with hundreds of potential new partners in a single visit.
The event is one of the first major in-person events as the world emerges from the COVID pandemic and it will welcome more than 25million visitors and 190 countries from around the world.
The trade delegation is designed to promote the richness and range of ways to enjoy Scottish luxury. From its world class seafood and spirits, through its renowned reputation for textiles and manufacturing, it aims to market Scottish luxury experiences to the world.
The international appeal of Scotland’s glorious scenery and unrivalled hospitality also makes the World Expo an unmissable event for leisure destinations.
Along with the support of 30 local Chambers across Scotland, Scottish Chambers is using its global links through the international Chamber network to set up meetings with hand-picked companies from around the world.
It will guide businesses through the experience, linking them with the perfect connections and events for their particular product or service.
Dr Liz Cameron OBE, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“We are taking Scotland to the world to showcase the best of Scottish luxury.
“Our international Chamber network has a well-deserved reputation for making vital connections and this opportunity comes at a unique point in time.
“Businesses can build on the established and deserved reputation Scotland already enjoys with a rare opportunity to get a global overview of how trends are changing.
“Food and drink is the largest industry for international exports but the potential across all sectors is huge, with over £33billion of trade – excluding oil & gas – and this continues to grow.
“The access our delegation will have to our top export destinations is unrivalled, with the US, France, Germany and the Netherlands all hosting pavilions and events at the Expo.
“We are ambitious for Scottish business and this is the ideal opportunity to reconnect with the world.”
Taking part in the delegation costs £600 (excluding VAT). For more information or to register an interest in attending, find out more on exporthubscotland.com at bit.ly/TakingScotlandToTheWorld01.
A new report launched today[1] (Wednesday 29th September), commissioned by Caithness Chamber of Commerce on behalf of the Caithness & North Sutherland Regeneration Partnership, demonstrates the economic benefits that Space Hub Sutherland will bring to the North Highland and Moray areas.
Space Hub Sutherland – a new satellite launch site – will bring huge employment and tourism benefits to the Scottish Highlands.
Jacobs, the global professional services company, estimates that a Northern Space Cluster could create 740 jobs in the Highlands and Islands and boost the regional economy by £56 million per year by the end of this decade.
The report, The North Highland and Moray Space Cluster Strategy, funded by Dounreay Site Restoration Ltd (DSRL) and Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), was produced for Caithness and North Sutherland Regeneration Partnership, which aims to attract a space business cluster to the North Highlands and Moray.
“As a commercial spaceport, Space Hub Sutherland will play a critical role in bringing income and employment to the North Highlands and Moray region,” said Caithness and North Sutherland Regeneration Partnership chairman Ian Ross. “It will help to retain highly skilled individuals in the North Highlands and offer opportunities to young people to help stem the flow of depopulation. Space Hub Sutherland will unlock further development of the Moray space cluster and support UK and Scottish government objectives for growing the space sector.”
Space Hub Sutherland, which is being developed by HIE, was the first vertical satellite launch site to secure planning permission in the UK and could become Europe’s first continental orbital spaceport.
The Jacobs economic impact model estimates that by 2030, the development could support a further 520 jobs in the rest of Scotland, including at space rocket manufacturers Orbex in Forres, and 140 in other parts of the U.K.
HIE Director of Strategic Projects David Oxley said: “Jacobs is a world leader in this kind of analysis and their findings are a huge vote of confidence in Space Hub Sutherland. Our central aim in developing this project has always been to generate significant benefits for the local community and the wider regional and Scottish economies. This is a highly credible report that we believe endorses our vision for a Northern Space Cluster, building upon a commercial spaceport in Sutherland, and the positive impacts it will generate.”
Trudy Morris, Chief Executive of Caithness Chamber of Commerce, said: “In addition to the clear economic benefits to the region, this report also demonstrates the capability, flexibility and willingness of the local supply chain to capture opportunities in an exciting new industry. With experience in a wide range of energy sectors, our highly-skilled local supply chain is ready and able to engage with the UK space sector as this exciting development proceeds.”
Chris Larmour, Chief Executive Officer at Orbex said “Space Hub Sutherland is already a catalyst for new jobs and commercial opportunities in the North Highlands and Moray – and this will only intensify over the coming years. We are happy to play our part in this economic growth and to create new prospects for young people in the area.”
The overall benefit of the North Highland and Moray Space Cluster to the UK economy would be an additional £99m in average annual gross value added, which is a measure of the value of goods and services produced, with £90 million of that generated in Scotland.
The spaceport itself will support more than 40 full-time jobs when fully operational with 12 launches per year. But Jacobs says more jobs will be created in construction and tourism, with the launches expected to attract an annual total of more than 4,400 visitors, whose spending will boost local hospitality businesses.
[1] https://www.cnsrp.org.uk/space-cluster/
Commenting on the confirmation that the Scottish Government is to ease testing for inbound international travel and will align with the UK, Dr Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“This will come as huge relief for Scotland’s aviation sector and the wider Scottish economy. For weeks businesses have been in negotiations with the Scottish Government, highlighting the importance of maintaining a four nations approach, to ensure the sector remains competitive and well placed to recover sustainably.
“Divergence in international travel restrictions and testing regimes would have placed Scotland and it’s airports at a significant economic disadvantage. Consumers would also have faced higher prices to travel to and from Scottish airports, risking businesses losing custom to competitors in other parts of the UK. It’s positive that the Scottish Government have listened to the concerns of industry and reached the same conclusions.
“This sends a clear signal to the world that Scotland is open for business. This decision was always more than just about international travel and tourism – it’s about securing business investment, international trade and exports, and supporting the many thousands of jobs that are supported by Scotland’s connectivity with the world.”
Responding to the Scottish Government’s COVID-19 update and confirmation of additional settings where vaccine certification will be required, Dr Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“The Scottish Government’s vaccine certification proposals were confusing when they were first brought forward and the proposed scheme as it stands today goes well beyond what was initially proposed.
“The criteria and definition now set out by the Scottish Government will unfortunately, by default, extend to many of our hotels, pubs, major sporting events and other hospitality and tourism businesses. Thousands of these businesses will now be caught up in vaccine certification rules, with little time left to understand, plan and implement them before the deadline of the 1st October.
“Industry associations and businesses have been attending meetings with Government officials in an attempt to identify and resolve issues with the scheme. We have made it clear that the practical application of what is being asked is not workable in the timelines being proposed. In addition, there are still no details around enforcement and it is becoming clear that the Scottish Government expect businesses to bear the burden of implementation costs, without any financial support whatsoever.
“Scotland’s economy remains fragile, and many businesses remain in survival mode. There is no doubt that vaccine certifications will serve as an economic deterrent. We have offered to work with the Government to help design appropriate solutions which will save jobs and save businesses, whilst continuing to encourage as many people as possible to get the vaccine.
“Businesses will not be prepared and ready for the 1st October and we ask again for a rethink.”
On International Travel Restrictions, Dr Liz Cameron said:
“The changes announced by the First Minister will be welcome with the green and amber lists being merged from 4th October. This is the right step towards fully re-opening Scotland’s international travel sector.
“The Scottish Government however must come to a swift decision on the future of international travel restrictions, specifically around the continued need for Day 2 PCR testing for fully vaccinated travellers, which will be removed in England and has the potential to cause serious economic harm to Scotland’s travel, tourism and hospitality sectors and the broader business community.
“A four-nations approach to re-opening up Scotland’s international travel sector is essential to supporting Scotland’s aviation sector and Scotland’s economic recovery. Without alignment, Scottish airports and businesses will miss out on vital trade and business as passengers seek out more cost effective and less restrictive travel options south of the border.”
Commenting on the Scottish Government’s update on progress of the establishment of Green Ports in Scotland, Dr Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“This is an incredibly disappointing development and it is highly regrettable that a shared agreement on the design and implementation of a freeports model for Scotland could not be reached between the Scottish and UK Governments. This situation should have been avoided and many businesses will view the lack of cooperation and partnership with dismay.
“The UK Government’s decision to move forward on its own, whilst disappointing, will be welcomed by many ports who have invested significant time and money in anticipation for bidding for the status. We need to receive details urgently of how businesses can bid and what the next steps are. We cannot afford any further delays especially when Scotland is already behind other parts of the UK, impacting on our ability to attract global investment.
“We also understand the Scottish Government intends to pursue its Green Ports model. Business will need the detail of how this will operate and will urgently need confirmation from both governments that investment incentives will be mirrored across the UK to prevent competitive disadvantage for Scottish businesses.”
Reacting to confirmation that the introduction of the Scottish Government’s COVID-19 Vaccine Certification Scheme has been approved by the Scottish Parliament, Dr Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“The Scottish Government’s strategic shift from eliminating, to suppressing and living with the virus, was a huge step forward and allowed many businesses to open up and start trading again. Whilst the Parliament has voted in favour of vaccine certifications, there is no doubt that this step will act as an economic deterrent.
“These new requirements will directly impact on consumer confidence and risks creating further financial damage to those sectors who have already been hardest hit by COVID-19. The events, night-time economy and hospitality sectors have had an incredibly tough 18 months and have expressed legitimate concerns over the impact vaccine certifications will have on trading.
“At the same time, these beleaguered businesses face the prospect of further costs to implement the scheme, including scanning equipment and additional staff to manage entry. In the meantime, many businesses are still desperately seeking the detail they need around exemptions, enforcement, penalties or even the definition of the venues covered which is deeply concerning given the pace of certification rollout. Huge questions also remain over how long these measures will remain in place and what level cases would need to fall to for these requirements to be removed. All of these questions need addressed urgently.
“The Scottish Government should continue to focus their efforts and resources towards ensuring as many individuals are fully vaccinated as quickly as possible, put greater investment into supporting the Test and Protect approach and engage with business to put in place workable plans which enable all of us to live and work safely with as few restrictions as possible.”
Responding to the publication of the Scottish Government’s 2021-2022 Programme for Government, Dr Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:
“The First Minister recognised that businesses continue to be badly affected by the pandemic and that recovery remains fragile and it is right that today’s Programme for Government places Scotland’s recovery from Covid-19 first and foremost on the agenda.
“The confirmation that businesses will continue to receive a 100% business rates relief for this financial year, and that the Fresh Start Fund, Small Business Bonus and Growth Accelerators will continue for the length of the whole Parliament is particularly welcome and will give businesses a firm footing from which to rebuild.
“However, these reliefs alone will not spur the economy into action and the Scottish Government must work in partnership with industry on recovery and growth policies if we are to protect jobs and businesses.”
On International Trade:
“Scotland’s international competitiveness, connectivity and exporting capacity has been badly damaged by the pandemic and Brexit, so rebuilding our connections, repairing supply chains and getting back into international markets is essential for Scotland’s businesses. The Programme for Government’s commitments to grow Scotland’s international reach and reputation are welcome and SCC stand ready to showcase the innovative and high-quality products and services that Scottish businesses have to offer the world.
“Crucial to enabling Scotland’s exports is the full re-opening of Scotland’s international travel sector and whilst the commitments to restore lost connectivity go some way to achieving this, what the sector needs is urgent support through a dedicated Scottish Aviation Strategy. This was missing from today’s announcement and industry will want to see this addressed as quickly as possible.”
On the Non-Domestic Rates COVID-19 Appeals Bill:
“We continue to be dismayed at the Scottish Government’s removal of the rights for businesses to appeal and the retrospective removal of the material change of circumstances mechanism which will penalise businesses at a time when industry requires as much support as possible.
“The Scottish Government proposals are completely at odds with key principles of certainty and fairness in a modern taxation system and goes against the main aim of the Barclay review to design a rates system that better reflects changing marketplaces.
“This Bill could burden the Scottish business community with hundreds of millions in Non-Domestic rate charges which it would otherwise not have had to bear, and which will not be offset by the consequential funding promised.”
On upfront business costs:
“Many businesses remain in survival mode as they recover from the pandemic and had hoped to see a commitment to scrap or defer the introduction of any new taxes or levies on business for the lifetime of the next Parliament.
“That additional business taxes such as the workplace parking levy and transient visitor levy are still on the government’s agenda will be disappointing for those sectors affected who simply want to focus on recovery.
On Tourism:
“The commitment to support the recommendations of the Tourism Recovery Taskforce are positive, but there are huge issues in Scotland’s labour market and supply chain that need addressed if we are to secure a tourism sector recovery and future growth.
“Coupled with the continued restrictions on international travel, much greater investment will be needed to support the sector in the immediate term.”
On Digital Support for Business:
“Increasing the digital capacity of businesses is a priority for Scottish Chambers of Commerce and we are pleased to see our request for additional funding and support announced today.
“The additional funding to help businesses harness the economic potential of technology is extremely welcome. Throughout the pandemic many businesses moved their operations on-line, and we know that there is a huge digital skills and infrastructure gap that continues to hold businesses back from maximising their full potential.
“Connectivity and the digital divide remain a stumbling block for many businesses in many parts of Scotland, particularly rural and remote areas, and a commitment to tackle this through the provision of greater 4G and fibre broadband will provide a significant boost to businesses. However, industry will want to see urgency and pace; any further delays to roll-out will place Scottish businesses at a disadvantage.”
On Climate Opportunity and a Just Transition:
“Scotland’s oil and gas sector remains a major contributor to Scotland’s economy and the commitment to support the findings of the Just Transition Commission are positive, as well as the announcement of a decade long £500 million Just Transition Fund for the North East and Moray which will support businesses successfully adapt and evolve.
“The North East is crucial to Scotland’s economic recovery and it’s vital that the Scottish Government invest in our strategic strengths, leveraging our expertise in areas such as oil and gas into new technologies like carbon capture and hydrogen to meet Scotland’s Net Zero targets.”
On Skills & Talent:
“Businesses need talent to drive growth and SCC have been calling for a clear plan from government to support the upskilling and reskilling of Scotland’s workforce at all levels.
“Commitments today to continue the delivery of the Young Person’s Guarantee as well as considerable investment in green jobs through the provision of the National Transition Training Fund are supported by SCC and we are pleased to see them receive backing.
“Scotland’s businesses need a skilled workforce and we hope to see the implementation of the Logan Review close the digital skills gap that exists in Scotland and the Greens Jobs Workforce Academy also drive forward the talent pipeline for the associated sectors.”
On education reform:
“Confirmation that the Scottish Government will replace the Scottish Qualifications Authority with a new agency overseeing the school’s curriculum creates a real opportunity to refocus Scotland’s education sector to support the rapid reskilling and upskilling of the workforce including school leavers and those seeking work.
“The new agency should work closely with Scotland’s business community to understand the needs to industry and their overall approach to the curriculum should be laser focused on meeting the immediate requirements of a post-pandemic economy with a greater emphasis on digital training and skills.”
On the National Economic Transformation Strategy:
“We welcome the scope of the strategy and the announcement of the National Challenge Competition which will provide millions in funding to projects with the greatest potential to transform Scotland’s economy. This will be critical to keeping Scotland’s economy competitive, increasing productivity, reinvigorating our town and city centres, and marking Scotland out as a global player.”
In advance of the publication of the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government, Dr Liz Cameron OBE, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce has written to the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon outlining the priorities for Scotland’s business community for the coming Parliamentary year.
Commenting, Dr Liz Cameron said:
“Scotland’s economy is finally starting to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and it’s essential that Scotland’s businesses aren’t coming out of the frying pan and going straight into the fire.
“Scotland’s businesses are clear that the focus of the Scottish Government for the coming parliamentary year must be front and centre on supporting business recovery from the damaging impact of the pandemic.
“With increasing challenges around labour and skills shortages, supply chains and manufacturing component shortages, it’s important that the Scottish Government prioritise the needs of businesses to secure economic growth, and this should be reflected in the upcoming legislative programme.
“The Scottish Government must work increasingly closely with Scotland’s businesses to invest in revitalising our towns and cities, training and upskilling the workforce, prioritising digital infrastructure and urgently plan to re-open Scotland’s vital aviation sector to reinstate and expand Scotland’s connectivity with the world.
“It’s essential that the Scottish Government carefully consider the needs of businesses throughout the passage and implementation of its legislative programme during this session and use every lever at its disposal to secure an economic recovery that will create jobs and growth in every part of the country.”